Food Inflation in the U.S.: A Strategic Reckoning for Food Sector Leaders

This article first appeared in the September 2025 issue of Presence Marketing’s newsletter.

By Steven Hoffman

In 2025, food inflation in the United States has transformed from a passing concern into a defining business challenge—and opportunity—for leaders across the food ecosystem. A 3% year-over‑year increase in overall food prices, including 2.4% for groceries and 3.8% for restaurant meals, may seem modest. Yet beneath those figures lie sharper, more disruptive trends: surging prices in staples such as coffee, ground beef, and eggs; strategic responses from consumers and retailers; and structural pressures that demand both resilience and reimagining. Business strategists in the food sector must now lead with insight, not just facts.

A Collision of Climate, Cost, and Policy
Climate volatility continues to drag on food supply and costs. Extreme drought in U.S. cattle belts, heat waves in crop regions, and pest outbreaks such as avian flu have propelled food inflation beyond headline figures. Coffee is up 13.4%, ground beef 10.3%, while eggs have spiked 27.3%, putting extraordinary strain on manufacturers and squeezing household budgets (Axios).

Adding to the upward pressure are sweeping tariffs introduced by the Trump administration, with tariffs on imports from Brazil and India reaching 50%. The tariffs are already working their way into the cost of everything from meat and produce to metals used in cans and packaging (The Washington Post). According to the Yale Budget Lab’s estimates as of August 7, 2025, consumers face an overall average effective tariff rate of 18.6% – the highest since 1933 – and the impact is projected to cost U.S. households an extra $2,400 per year.

Meanwhile, immigration enforcement over the past several months has destabilized farm labor. In California’s Oxnard region, intensified ICE activity has slashed agricultural labor by 20-40%, leading to $3-7 billion in crop losses and driving produce prices up 5% to 12%, according to research published in August 2025 from Cornell University. Simultaneously, cuts in SNAP and other supports have strained both consumer access and farm revenue—especially for smaller producers—plus, grocers in rural communities and elsewhere that depend on SNAP programs feel that impact much harder (Climate and Capital Media).

Beyond cost drivers, the retail margin picture is fraught. Analysis from the White House Council of Economic Advisers showed grocers’ profit margins rising 2 percentage points since before the pandemic—reaching two-decade highs—while “shrinkflation” and package downsizing quietly preserve profitability (Grocery Dive).

FMI—The Food Industry Association’s study released in July 2025, “The Food Retailing Industry Speaks 2025,” reveals an industry struggling to navigate challenging economic conditions, largely due to policies implemented during the Trump administration. According to FMI, about 80% of both retailers and suppliers anticipate that trade policies and tariffs will continue to affect pricing and disrupt supply chains. Most grocers expect operating costs to remain high (Supermarket News).

Consumers Are Stressed About Rising Prices
Recent polling reveals that nearly 90% of U.S. adults are stressed about grocery prices—with half calling it a major stressor. As a result, Americans are responding to these pressures with pragmatic and inventive shifts. Consumers across income levels are tightening the belt, leveraging buy-now-pay-later options, getting creative with savings, and turning to food banks when they must (AInvest).

Shopping behavior reflects this anxiety—and innovation. RDSolutions reports that 86% of consumers now buy private-label products, with price cited as the primary decision factor; 42% opt for cheaper alternatives; while 20% skip items altogether. Data from The Feedback Group shows 61% of supermarket shoppers use sale-driven habits—buying on promotion, eating more at home, and choosing store brands over national names (Progressive Grocer). Meanwhile, many households lean on grocery hacks such as careful list-making, midweek shopping, loyalty programs, and bulk purchases to maximize savings (Times of India).

Even amid tightening budgets, shoppers haven’t completely abandoned pleasure, however. KCI’s “stress index” reveals that consumers crave “affordable luxuries” and product discovery—seeking balance between taste and value. In fact, 68% of consumers surveyed prioritize taste over price, while one-third still prioritize lowest-priced options (Food Dive).

In a fresh produce market reeling from the effects of inflation and immigration enforcement, one consumer trend remains strong: Health continues to drive purchases of fresh fruits and vegetables. According to The Packer Fresh Trends 2025 report, published in August 2025, 72% of shoppers say their primary reason for buying produce is to support a healthy lifestyle. However, price pressures loom larger than ever, with 44% of consumers now saying that cost is the top factor in deciding what to buy, up from 39% last year. As households juggle tighter budgets, they’re opting for familiar staples over experimenting with newer or higher-priced options (Farm Journal).

For lower income individuals and families, higher food prices are resulting in less consumption of healthier food options, with the result that Americans are not eating enough fruits, vegetables, and other nutrient-dense foods. Instead, they are choosing sugary and ultra-processed foods, which tend to be cheaper and last longer.

"There's evidence that inflation continues to shape food choices, particularly for low-income Americans who prioritize price over healthfulness," Constance Brown-Riggs, a registered nurse and nutritionist specializing in diabetes care, told Northwell Health. "These results highlight the disparity in how income influences food priorities," she continued, adding that higher food prices often increase food insecurity. "These shifts increase the risk of chronic diseases such as diabetes, heart disease and obesity."

Even so, there is some opportunity on the horizon. The Packer Fresh Trends 2025 report shared some bright spots, including the fact that Millennials and Gen Z are leading the way on trying new products, exploring organic options, and prioritizing convenience, including prepped veggies and grab-and-go fruit packs. In addition, interest in organic remains strong, with 22% of consumers purchasing organic always or most of the time, particularly among younger and higher-income households.

Grocers, Brands, and Manufacturers Corral Cost Pressures
The reaction from retailers and manufacturers has been tactical and dynamic. Major chains are reevaluating supplier cost increase requests, pushing back aggressively against inflation on branded items. Meanwhile, grocers are ramping up private-label assortments (Investopedia).

Businesses like Aldi are demonstrating how cost leadership can go viral: A summer discount campaign across 2,550 stores marked down 400 items by up to 33%, estimated to save shoppers $100 million. Fast-food chains are responding with value menu bundles—their way of catering to cash-strapped consumers without sacrificing frequency (The Wall Street Journal).

In the natural channel, retailers such as Natural Grocers are emphasizing value, loyalty programs and sales to draw shoppers. For its 70th anniversary in August, Natural Grocers leveraged deep discounts across its nearly 170 stores in 21 states—up to 60% off on more than 500 products—to tap into consumer demand for affordability and quality. According to AInvest, the campaign “sets a benchmark for value-driven retail” by blending “nostalgia, discounts and loyalty incentives to boost sales and customer retention.”

As demand for better-for-you foods remains strong among health-conscious consumers, Jay Jacobowitz, president and founder of Retail Insights, told Supermarket News that many retailers in the natural and independent space experienced a strengthened second half of 2024 and first quarter of 2025, as less price-sensitive consumers make personal health and wellness a priority. Smaller retailers “are going to have increased (economic) pressure, but it’s not pressure that they’re unfamiliar with dealing with,” he said.

Manufacturers are similarly pressured. They face rising raw material, labor, and energy costs, yet retailers limit how much of that inflation they pass through. Many are resorting to smaller or reformulated packaging, trimming promotions, and optimizing sourcing strategies to protect shelf placement (Columbus CEO).

Yet even in the last few weeks, food makers are succumbing to the need to raise prices as the longer-term effects of tariffs, economic policies, and supply chain disruption kick in. On Aug. 7, 2025, Forager Project co-founders Stephen Williamson and John-Charles Hanley announced the following on Instagram:

“Like many food makers, we’ve been feeling the effects of rising ingredient costs—especially for our beloved cashews (up 52%) and coconuts (up 113%). We’ve held off as long as we could, but to keep making food the right way, a price increase was necessary. What hasn’t changed? Organic ingredients, ethical sourcing, planet-healthy practices.”

At the agricultural level, the disconnect is acute. Farmers receive only about 16 cents back from every retail food dollar spent—and that fraction must cover skyrocketing seed, fertilizer, and machinery costs (Washington Post). Some farmers still support tariffs, believing they will yield long-term trade gains; others see them as a short‑term hit to margins (Investigate Midwest).

Strategy: Adaptation, Advocacy, and Resilience
Current forecasts from the USDA suggest moderate gains: food-at-home prices rising around 2.2% for 2025 and restaurant prices about 4%. But the structural challenges—climate, policy, labor, and pricing power—carry implications far richer and more urgent than those figures alone (Food & Wine).

For food-sector professionals, the directive is clear: Strategies must be multidimensional.

1. Reinvent Pricing & Perceived Value
Offer tiered, smaller, or private-label packaging; highlight affordable luxuries and discovery moments in-store and online. Aldi’s shelf reset, Sprouts Farmers Market’s value-based positioning, and Natural Grocers’ emphasis on savings and its frequent buyer program demonstrate ways to drive loyalty and savings.

2. Strengthen Supply Chain Flexibility
Diversify sourcing, invest in climate-resilient inputs, and forecast for volatility. Manufacturers need contingency plans for both weather and trade disruptions.

3. Align Expectations & Margins
Increase analytics around cost impacts and pass-through capabilities. Supplier–retailer partnerships should define fair margin boundaries and shared value strategies for inflation periods.

4. Advocate for Systemic Support
Engage policymakers to safeguard labor stability—through H-2A visa expansions or by regularizing undocumented workers—and to secure tariff relief for food essentials and farm inputs.

5. Build Resilient Retail Formats
Simplify offerings to reduce shopper anxiety and stock-outs. Grocery models like Aldi or Sprouts’ curated “innovation centers” help drive discovery while managing complexity.

A New Epoch for Food-Business Leadership
Food inflation in 2025 is less an anecdote than a wake-up call. When climate shocks strike, tariffs bite, and labor becomes unstable overnight, businesses that only react are left behind. But those that blend adaptive execution, strategic policymaking, and bold market positioning are building enduring advantage.

Consumers may feel squeezed, but they’re still looking for experiences that feel smart, authentic, and human. Retailers, suppliers, processors, and farmers must each meet them there—delivering value, stability, and insight. Because in this new era, food-sector leadership is not just about pricing; it’s about crafting trust in uncertain times—and reshaping food systems to weather today’s storms and make the most of tomorrow’s opportunities.

Steven Hoffman is Managing Director of Compass Natural Marketing, a strategic communications and brand development agency serving the natural and organic products industry. Learn more at www.compassnatural.com.

Can Publicly Run Grocery Stores Solve Food Deserts — and Deliver on Nutrition Equity?

As New York and Chicago explore city-run supermarkets, new models — public, nonprofit and cooperative — are reshaping the business of feeding underserved communities.

This article first appeared in the August 2025 issue of Presence Marketing’s newsletter.

By Steven Hoffman

When New York Assembly member and mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani proposed opening five city-run grocery stores—one in each borough—he reignited a debate that cuts to the heart of capitalism, food justice, and municipal responsibility. Critics labeled it a socialist fantasy. Proponents called it long overdue. But behind the political theater lies a legitimate question: Can publicly operated grocery stores succeed where the private market has failed?

Across America, millions live in low income, low access (LILA) markets—communities without easy access to affordable, nutritious food, or what many in the media refer to as food deserts. In these neighborhoods, fast-food outlets and corner stores predominate, while supermarkets are few and far between. For decades, policy solutions have focused on tax incentives or subsidies to lure grocery chains into underserved areas. Often, those stores don’t last. Mamdani’s proposal dares to flip the script: If the private sector won’t meet the need, let the public sector step in.

Pixabay.com

It’s not an entirely new idea. In small towns and major cities alike, experiments in publicly owned, nonprofit, or cooperative grocery models have taken root. Some have succeeded. Others have shuttered. Together, they paint a nuanced picture of what it takes to make public grocery stores work—and where they can go wrong.

The Rural Proof-of-Concept
With corporate consolidation leading to fewer grocery store options as food prices soar, “people are clamoring for solutions, and that’s leading to creative thinking on what might work,” Ganesh Sitaraman, Director of the Vanderbilt Policy Accelerator, told the Food and Environment Reporting Network. Sitaraman recently published a report, Public Grocery Stores: A Guide for Policymakers.

In St. Paul in rural southeastern Kansas, a town with a population of 600, a municipal grocery store has been in operation since 2013. After the town’s last private grocer had closed, residents faced a 30-minute drive to the nearest supermarket. Rather than accept that future, the city council voted to open its own store. St. Paul’s model is humble, offering a basic selection of staples, fresh produce, and frozen goods. It doesn’t need to generate big profits—just enough to keep the doors open. In that way, it functions like any other public utility: not glamorous, but essential. More than a decade later, it remains in business.

Not every rural experiment has succeeded. In 2019, the town of Baldwin, Florida, opened a city-run grocery store, but by 2024, it had closed its doors. The reasons? Low foot traffic, challenges sourcing competitively priced goods, and the gravitational pull of the nearby Walmart. The lesson: Public stores face the same economic headwinds as private ones, and without a clear strategy and strong local buy-in, they may struggle.

A City of Contradictions
Chicago offers a case study in both the fragility of private grocery models and the resilience of community-driven alternatives. Between 2013 and 2021, the city lost at least 20 full-service grocery stores, many in predominantly Black and Latino neighborhoods on the South and West Sides. In 2022, Whole Foods Market closed its Englewood store just six years after opening with $10.7 million in city subsidies. For residents, the closure felt like a betrayal and a confirmation that public-private partnerships may not always prioritize community needs (Block Club Chicago).

But even as chains exit, grassroots solutions are emerging. The Go Green Community Fresh Market, launched in Englewood in 2022, is a nonprofit market developed in partnership with local organizations and institutions. It offers fresh produce, pantry staples, and prepared foods in a space designed to reflect community needs.

According to a report in Next City, the store is part of a broader movement toward community-led food infrastructure. Unlike traditional grocers, these models often blend retail with education, workforce development, and health services. They’re small but mighty—and in many cases, they’re succeeding where big box stores have failed.

Chicago’s city government has taken notice. In 2023, the city commissioned a study on the feasibility of municipal grocery stores. The findings, published in 2024, estimated that opening three stores would cost around $26.7 million (Chicago Sun-Times). Critics balked at the price tag. Advocates pointed out that the city has spent far more on failed economic development deals.

Mayor Brandon Johnson has voiced support for continued exploration. His administration sees food access as part of a broader public health and equity strategy—one that requires thinking beyond the boundaries of traditional retail.

New York’s Big Swing
In New York, Mamdani’s plan has drawn national attention. His proposal envisions five city-operated grocery stores with a focus on affordability, accessibility, and cultural relevance. The goal is not just to provide food, but to provide good food—including fresh produce, whole grains, and organic staples—at prices families can afford.

The backlash has been swift. Billionaire grocery executives and conservative commentators warn of government inefficiency, cost overruns, and mission creep. The Wall Street Journal editorial board argued that the plan would replicate “all the flaws of a Soviet commissary.” Mark Cuban quipped, “None of that s*** has a chance.”

But Mamdani remains undeterred. “We treat food like a luxury when it should be a public good,” he told Bloomberg. He sees the city-run grocery model as a form of infrastructure—akin to schools or libraries—that delivers long-term social ROI, not quarterly profits.

Public support appears strong, especially in districts hit hardest by inflation and store closures. In a city where the average grocery markup can exceed 25% in low-income neighborhoods, the idea of subsidized pricing resonates—and aligns with Mamdani’s broader political platform centered on economic justice (NBC New York).

Natural and Organic for Everyone?
One of the most compelling aspects of publicly operated groceries is their potential to democratize access to natural, organic, and specialty foods. In most food deserts, such items are virtually nonexistent. For households managing diabetes, allergies, or autoimmune conditions, the absence of unprocessed, nutrient-dense food isn’t just inconvenient—it could be dangerous.

Public stores, especially those not beholden to shareholder profits, could prioritize clean-label foods, support regional regenerative farms, and offer bulk bins, zero-waste options, and plant-based products typically confined to high-end co-ops. By participating in programs like Double Up Food Bucks or SNAP Match, these stores can extend purchasing power for low-income shoppers (Axios).

Imagine walking into a municipal grocery where you can use your EBT card to buy organic lentils, fresh kale, or local mushrooms—and receive a discount for doing so. That’s not just a policy victory; it’s potentially a public health breakthrough. Cities like Madison, Wisconsin, and Atlanta are already exploring similar models, indicating a growing appetite to align food equity with climate and nutrition goals.

Co-ops and Nonprofits: Lessons from the Field
In the space between private retail and public provision lies another model: the food cooperative. Owned and operated by members, co-ops have long served as alternatives to corporate grocery chains. But historically, they’ve skewed toward affluent, mostly white communities.

That’s changing. The Cooperative Development Institute (CDI) has worked to support co-ops in low-income and BIPOC communities across the Northeast. According to CDI, co-ops in food deserts thrive when they reflect local culture, offer accessible membership structures, and receive early technical and financial support.

In the majority Black-led community in Detroit’s North End, the Detroit People’s Food Co-op celebrated one year in business this past May, making fresh produce and products from locally sourced farms and producers more accessible to more than 4,000 co-op members. The term “food desert” doesn’t sit well with co-op general manager Akil Talley ― a desert, he said, is naturally occurring: “We like to call it 'food apartheid,' because a lot of it was intentional," he told the Detroit Free Press. The co-op was founded by the Detroit Black Community Food Sovereignty Network, a nonprofit organization dedicated to teaching residents about the importance of fresh food that is also behind a number of other food sovereignty initiatives. 

In Chattanooga, Tennessee, the nonprofit Chattanooga Food Center strives to create a food system that offers affordable and convenient access to healthy food, bridging the gap between producers and consumers. The organization partners with farms located within 150 miles of the city to source fresh produce, meat, eggs and dairy products. Its retail store, Gaining Ground Grocery, located in the Highland Park neighborhood of the city, an area previously bereft of fresh food options, offers discounted groceries alongside nutrition education. All proceeds from the store support the continuing mission of the Chattanooga Food Center. Customers can pay for groceries via a SNAP Electronic Benefits Transfer card, and the store also participates in the Double Up Food Bucks program established by the Fair Food Network which doubles the value of SNAP dollars for fresh local produce.

In Dayton, Ohio, the Gem City Market—a Black-led co-op—was launched in 2021 after a successful community investment campaign with more than 3,200 members. Both serve as proof points that with the right support, co-ops can thrive in marginalized neighborhoods and for many communities, municipal or hybrid public/nonprofit models may offer a more sustainable path.

Yet co-ops and nonprofits face unique challenges: they often require significant volunteer labor, complex governance, and ongoing grant support. Stores in low income areas also rely on such government programs as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which serves 42 million Americans as a defense against hunger.

For example, Gem City Market is committed to making sure food is readily available to local residents of all income levels, with programs like their “WeGotchu” sale, where they match EBT/SNAP-eligible purchases at 50%. However, the SNAP program is facing the biggest funding cuts in its history with the passage of the 2025 reconciliation bill, aka the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which could undermine the ability for low income families to access SNAP.

What Failure Teaches Us
Every closure is a lesson. Florida’s Baldwin Market closed because it couldn’t compete on price. Whole Foods Market left Englewood because it didn’t meet its margin targets. Even Rise Community Market in Cairo, Illinois, launched with fanfare, has struggled to maintain sales volume (New Republic).

These failures underscore the importance of three factors: management expertise, community trust, and economic patience. A grocery store is an operations-intensive business. Success depends on efficient procurement, cold chain management, labor stability, and pricing strategy.

Public or nonprofit ownership doesn’t remove those challenges. It only changes the priorities. Profit may not be the goal—but solvency is still essential. As one food policy analyst put it: “You can’t build equity on empty shelves.”

The Case for Investment
Despite the risks, many argue the benefits of public grocery stores outweigh the costs. The returns may not show up in balance sheets, but in reduced health care spending, increased employment, better school performance, and stronger local economies.

Public stores can act as anchor tenants, revitalizing commercial corridors and attracting additional services like clinics, pharmacies, or credit unions. They can train and employ local residents at living wages. And they can reinvest revenue into community priorities.

As Mamdani frames it: “We’re not just opening stores. We’re opening a future where no New Yorker has to choose between dinner and dignity.”

A New Chapter in Food Access
The feasibility of publicly operated grocery stores isn’t a yes-or-no question. It’s a matter of design, context, and political will. Done poorly, they risk inefficiency and failure. Done well, they can transform food systems.

What’s clear is that the private market alone will not solve food apartheid. After decades of disinvestment and unmet promises, communities are demanding something different. Whether through municipal markets, nonprofits, or co-ops, the movement is growing. And it’s not just about access. It’s about what kind of food system we want—and who it serves.

If cities like New York and Chicago can make public groceries work, they may set a new precedent: that good food is not a luxury, but a right. And that sometimes, the best way to feed the people—is to own the store.

Steven Hoffman is Managing Director of Compass Natural Marketing, a strategic communications and brand development agency serving the natural and organic products industry. Learn more at www.compassnatural.com.

EWG Publishes ‘Clean 15’ to Reduce Dietary Pesticide Exposure; Study Shows Glyphosate Still Carcinogenic at Levels Deemed Safe

This article first appeared in the July 2025 issue of Presence Marketing’s newsletter.

By Steven Hoffman

As public awareness of the connection between food and health continues to grow, so too does concern over pesticide residues in the food we eat every day. This month, two major developments underscore just how crucial it is to pay attention not only to what’s on our plates — but how it got there.

On June 11, the Environmental Working Group (EWG) released its 2025 Shopper’s Guide to Pesticides in Produce, including the highly anticipated “Clean Fifteen” and “Dirty Dozen” lists. These guides rank popular fruits and vegetables based on pesticide contamination, using data compiled from the USDA and FDA. For nearly two decades, these rankings have helped consumers make more informed decisions about when buying organic matters most.

This year’s “Clean Fifteen” offers some good news: Nearly 60% of the tested samples of the 15 least-contaminated conventional produce items showed no detectable pesticide residues whatsoever. Topping the clean list were avocados, sweet corn, pineapple, onions, and papaya — all relatively safe bets for budget-conscious shoppers looking to reduce pesticide intake without going fully organic.

But the release of EWG’s guide was accompanied by sobering news on another front: The results of a two-year study published in Environmental Health adds to a growing body of evidence suggesting that glyphosate — the active ingredient in Bayer-Monsanto’s Roundup®, the world’s most widely used herbicide — may cause multiple types of cancer, and at doses considered safe by regulators.

“Our study provides solid and independent scientific evidence of the carcinogenicity of glyphosate and glyphosate-based herbicides,” said lead investigator Daniele Mandrioli of the Ramazzini Institute in Italy.

Glyphosate and the American Diet
Glyphosate has been a mainstay of industrial agriculture since the 1970s, praised for its broad-spectrum weed-killing power. With the rise of genetically modified crops engineered to resist glyphosate, its use exploded in the late 1990s and 2000s. Today, it’s sprayed on millions of acres of GMO corn, soybeans, cotton, and canola. But it doesn’t stop there.

In conventional grain production, glyphosate is also used as a desiccant — sprayed just before harvest to dry out crops like oats, wheat, lentils, and chickpeas. That means it doesn’t just show up in livestock feed. It ends up in our breakfast bowls and lunchboxes: in oatmeal, crackers, tortillas, hummus, and cereal — it can even end up in products marketed as “natural” or “healthy.”

Glyphosate is now so prevalent in our environment that it has been detected in everything from rainwater to breast milk. A 2022 CDC study found glyphosate in the urine of 80% of a representative sample of U.S. children and adults. Just last year, EWG reported that popular oat-based cereals and snack bars still contained detectable glyphosate residues, years after promising to reformulate.

So, how dangerous is it?

A Closer Look at the Science
The new Environmental Health study, published in June 2025, evaluated nearly 2,000 previously published studies to reassess glyphosate’s potential health risks. It concluded that even very low doses — far lower than currently allowed by regulatory agencies — can pose significant risks of cancer, hormone disruption, reproductive harm, and immune suppression. The researchers found that glyphosate can interfere with endocrine signaling pathways at parts-per-billion levels, meaning even tiny exposures could be biologically active.

This follows a 2015 determination by the World Health Organization’s International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), which classified glyphosate as a “probable human carcinogen.” Since then, thousands of lawsuits have been filed against Bayer-Monsanto, many resulting in high-profile jury verdicts linking glyphosate exposure to non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. Although Bayer continues to deny glyphosate’s carcinogenicity and has spent billions to settle lawsuits, public confidence in the safety of this chemical is eroding.

And now, with researchers warning there may be no safe level of exposure, the need for regulatory reassessment — and consumer action — is more urgent than ever.

What the ‘Clean Fifteen’ Tells Us — and What It Doesn’t
In the midst of all this, EWG’s Shopper’s Guide to Pesticides in Produce offers a valuable, practical resource for consumers trying to navigate the complexity of the modern food system.

EWG analyzed over 47,000 samples of 46 popular fruits and vegetables. The “Clean Fifteen” list identifies produce items that typically have the lowest pesticide levels, even when grown conventionally. This year’s top 15 are:

1. Avocados

2. Sweet corn

3. Pineapple

4. Onions

5. Papaya

6. Frozen sweet peas

7. Asparagus

8. Honeydew melon

9. Kiwi

10. Cabbage

11. Watermelon

12. Mushrooms

13. Mangoes

14. Sweet potatoes

15. Carrots

It’s worth noting that some of these crops, such as papaya and sweet corn, are frequently genetically modified. That means they may be lower in pesticide residues, but still part of the chemical-dependent industrial agriculture model.

In contrast, the “Dirty Dozen” — which includes strawberries, spinach, and kale — are best purchased organic due to their high pesticide loads. For instance, 90% of strawberry samples tested had detectable pesticide residues, and spinach samples had, on average, 1.8 times more pesticide residues by weight than any other crop.

The takeaway: if you can’t afford to buy everything organic, prioritize organic options for items on the Dirty Dozen, and rest a bit easier when purchasing from the Clean Fifteen.

Resources & References

• EWG Shopper’s Guide to Pesticides in Produce: https://www.ewg.org/foodnews/

• Glyphosate cancer study summary: https://www.thenewlede.org/2025/06/new-study-adds-to-evidence-that-glyphosate-weed-killer-can-cause-cancer/

Steven Hoffman is Managing Director of Compass Natural Marketing, a strategic communications and brand development agency serving the natural and organic products industry. Learn more at www.compassnatural.com.

Presence Marketing’s Bill Weiland Shares ‘Bankable Trends’ at MAHA Institute Launch in D.C.

These comments by Presence Marketing’s founder and CEO were transcribed by Steven Hoffman, of Compass Natural Marketing, for Presence’s June 2025 newsletter.

Bill Weiland, Founder and CEO of Presence Marketing, was called to Washington, D.C., on May 15 to speak as part of a full-day symposium presented by the MAHA Institute, a new organization dedicated to changing and championing federal policies and initiatives related to nutritious food, safe and sustainable agriculture, and health freedom, inspired by Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s MAHA movement. Bill spoke on a panel that also featured Bill Moses, founder of Kevita and Flying Embers; Daniel Fabricant, Ph.D., CEO of the Natural Products Association; and Steve Bullock, CEO of PerfectRx.

To view a recording of the full-day MAHA Institute event, visit here. Bill Weiland’s panel presentation begins at the 7:18:48 mark. Here, below, is a complete transcript of Bill’s remarks at the event.

Hello everybody, I’m Bill Weiland. I have been in the natural products industry for 46 years and a CEO for 35 years. My company is Presence Marketing. We represent natural and organic brands to conventional grocery stores and natural foods stores. But we’ve become ultra-influential in the food business, and I’ll give you some great examples.

First of all, to simplify our business, we’re building brands. We’ve built iconic brands for many years like Amy’s Kitchen, Clif Bar, Go Macro, Traditional Medicinals Teas. We work on services like innovation and product optimization. We’re also financiers — we write checks small and large, and we have all kinds of partners: angel investors, banks, venture capital groups, etc., so we raise serious capital for emerging and existing natural and organic brands.

Presence Marketing founder and CEO Bill Weiland at the MAHA Institute launch. (Photo courtesy of MAHA Institute)

I have been doing a report for 11 years I affectionately call “Bankable Trends” (with the Presence Marketing logo I consider the second most popular swoosh in America!). But I promised 11 years ago that I would never call one incorrectly and guess what, I’m batting a thousand. I can tell you what’s going to hit and what’s not. Let’s talk a little bit real quickly about what’s not. Crickets are not the next sushi; crickets are the next bug. Nobody’s eating ‘effin’ bugs, OK? 

I’ll tell you what else people don’t want: lab food. Precision fermentation, no chance. Bio-identical dairy, no way. Cell-based meat? The cell ain’t gonna sell, and I promise you all of that is 100% accurate.

So, 11 years ago I called the collagen and bone broth trend. People are like, Bill, what the ‘H-E-double-hockey-sticks’ are you even talking about? What is this stuff? There was nothing in the channel except Grayslake Gelatin, right? And I said, well look, if you want to build muscle you eat steak, you eat chicken, you eat beans, you eat nuts — those amino acids will rebuild muscle tissue.

But if you want different benefits like bright taut skin, really high-level joint health as you age, great digestion, you need those amino acids around the joint of an animal. You can’t replicate those anywhere in nature. Glutamine, proline, glycine, alanine, arginine — very difficult to get. So, we went then and invested in and built brands like Bonafide Restorative Bone Broth, Vital Proteins, and Ancient Nutrition (we worked with Jordan Rubin and his team).

At the same time, 11 years ago we called ‘grain free.’ We always know the ‘why.’ Grain free — think about it. You capture the gluten free customer, you capture the customer who understands ‘anti-nutrients.’ You know, the phytic acid in grains, the lectins in beans, legumes and other vegetation, and how they bind with nutrients on a molecular level and make them inaccessible in the gut. So, grain free, the biggest percentage of sales is just people who say, ‘Hey, I don’t want a carbohydrate bomb. I want my cracker or tortilla to be calories of consequence.’

Let’s talk about seed oils and animal fats, now. So, we got after seed oils 15 years ago. We have a great partner in Boulder Canyon. We kept getting distribution, but their stuff kept getting discontinued when we got further and further away from Boulder. And I said guys, your canola, your safflower, your sunflower — I’ve got an idea. Let’s go with three platforms: coconut, olive, avocado — let’s build under those three higher value oils. Business has exploded and now they’re the number one chip in the country, many hundreds of millions of dollars, untold numbers of jobs and influence, and they’re retrofitting all products, now going completely seed oil free. Bobo’s came and saw me 10 years ago… I said use butter or coconut oil. They chose coconut oil. They were a small little business, cottage industry. Now, headed towards $200 million and killing it.

And let’s talk about how we’re building animal fat. This brand Masa is a proper tortilla chip cooked in beef fat. Incredible. You eat chips, you go to a Mexican restaurant, it’s kind of a gut bomb. I’m eating the plain flavor, scooping ceviche, scooping beef tartar — these are real food calories. You guys gotta try it!

I have another one here — we’re launching the first ancestral protein bar, Prima. This bar has grass fed collagen, grass fed whey, grass fed tallow, organic honey, simple ingredients. You eat one, you feel like Tarzan. We’ve got a brand called Somos, a Mexican food company that came to visit us recently at the affectionately named ‘Billagio,’ where we host meetings in Chicago. I told them if you want to build a big food company, launch refried beans cooked in tallow. Two SKUs are coming; they’ll be here for us to taste in 35 days; we’re going to launch them this calendar year. And then I’ve got a young couple of chefs — one of them is local here, Jesse & Ben’s — doing frozen french fries in either plant oils that are higher value or beef tallow.

Then just a quick primer on regenerative agriculture — my numbers, and I usually make my numbers — always, to be fair — I’m saying 18 years to 10% of all U.S. farmland will be farmed regeneratively. 

That is the path that I see us on right now. Blocking and tackling with a little extra juice.

Also, I just want you to know that we’ve been acquired by a group called Platform. These guys are tremendous. It’s still business as usual for Presence Marketing except it feels like a little ‘Elonesque’ rocket fuel has been injected into us. But we’re gonna fight the good fight here long term, keep putting jobs on the board, keep influencing the quality of products — organic, natural — and I promise you we will have hundreds and hundreds of SKUs in the next three years launched that will be high quality beef and bison tallow based — no vegetable oils — duck fat (schmaltz!) or chicken fat and pork lard. So, we’ll continue doing our jobs. We are grateful to be here and continue to support the mission.

And here’s what I want to say to our friends across the aisle: This is such a layup. Don’t fight us on this one, Democrats. I’ll tell you this, this train is coming and you have two choices. Get on board or get out of the way. Let’s go MAHA.

In Remembrance of Michael McGuffin, Herbal Industry Pioneer

This article first appeared in the March 2025 issue of Presence Marketing’s newsletter.

By Steven Hoffman

Michael McGuffin, a renowned founder of the modern-day herbal products industry and for more than 25 years the President of the American Herbal Products Association (AHPA), passed away on Feb. 17, 2025, at the age of 73. 

Michael was well known as a tireless advocate for consumer access to botanical medicine, industry self-regulation, and the safety and efficacy of herbal products. Under his leadership, AHPA spearheaded the request for mandatory reporting of serious adverse events; ensured a place for dietary supplements under the scope of the National Organic Program; provided support to the emerging CBD industry; and served as a key industry resource for regulatory guidance, policies and trade requirements.

Michael McGuffin (left) with Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, Denver, 2019. Photo: Steven Hoffman

Born in 1951 in Louisville, Kentucky, McGuffin was an early natural foods retailer – in 1974 he opened a store selling fresh fruit, vegetables and bulk herbs in Venice, California, and in 1978 he co-founded McZand Herbal Products (now known as Zand). After serving on the board of AHPA for nearly a decade, Michael took on the role of President in 1999. He retired from his leadership role at AHPA in November 2024. Michael also served on the boards of the American Herbal Pharmacopoeia and United Plant Savers, and as a member of the Advisory Board of the University of Southern California School of Pharmacy Regulatory Science Master's Degree Program. McGuffin was awarded the Cliff Adler “Heart in Business” award in 1994 and the Nutrition Business Journal Award for Efforts on Behalf of Industry in 2004 and 2012.

"All companies that sell herbs and botanical ingredients in the United States owe a debt of gratitude to Michael (and AHPA), and they should be supporting AHPA and Michael’s work and laudable legacy," Mark Blumenthal, Director of the American Botanical Council, wrote in a statement. "When the history of the herb industry in the United States is written — 50 or perhaps 100 years from now — Michael will be at the top of the list of people who have been instrumental in building the modern herb industry. The U.S. herb industry is flying its virtual green flag at half-staff in honor of Michael."

Steven Hoffman is Managing Director of Compass Natural, providing public relations, brand marketing, social media and strategic business development services to natural, organic, sustainable and hemp/CBD products businesses. Contact steve@compassnaturalmarketing.com.

DOGE Days: From Supplements to Organic Farming, Natural Industry Feels Cuts

By Steven Hoffman

As the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, led by billionaire Elon Musk under the administration of President Donald Trump, cuts jobs and funding for programs at U.S. agencies across the board, natural and organic food and dietary supplement producers are feeling the impact of DOGE cuts to FDA, USDA, USAID and others. 

Cuts to FDA have resulted in the resignation of James Jones, FDA’s top official in charge of food safety and nutrition, following what he called “indiscriminate” layoffs of dozens of food safety inspectors. Jones, who joined the agency in 2023, said the cuts would make it “fruitless” to continue his role. “I was looking forward to working to pursue the department’s agenda of improving the health of Americans by reducing diet-related chronic disease and risks from chemicals in food,” Jones wrote. News of the resignation was first reported on Feb. 17 by FoodFix.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services announced plans in mid-February to fire 5,200 probationary employees across its agencies, including the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The layoffs appeared to focus on employees in the agency’s departments for food, medical devices and tobacco products. It was not clear whether FDA employees who review drugs were exempted. However, Fierce Healthcare reported on Feb. 22 that hundreds of fired FDA probationary workers have received notices from the agency that their terminations were rescinded.

Following news of the DOGE’s layoffs at the FDA, including a number of staff firings at FDA’s office of Dietary Supplement Programs, the Council for Responsible Nutrition expressed concern about the FDA’s ability to effectively oversee dietary supplements and food safety. “As the FDA deputy commissioner steps down, it’s critical that the agency maintains adequate staffing and expertise to uphold consumer confidence in the food supply,” CRN said in a statement.

“While staffing changes can occur during any presidential transition, it is critical that the FDA maintains the resources, expertise and staffing levels necessary to ensure effective dietary supplement oversight that undergirds consumer confidence in the supplement market,” said Jeff Ventura, CRN’s VP of Communications.

USDA Pauses Two Major Organic Programs
At USDA, pauses and cuts in funding for organic transition and soil conservation programs are leaving farmers on the hook for millions of dollars they invested on the promise of reimbursement, while “accidental” firings of bird flu researchers at the agriculture agency have exacerbated the high price and limited availability of eggs. (According to USDA data, the price of eggs increased 38.2% since the beginning of 2025, with the cost of a dozen conventionally produced eggs exceeding of $8 in February 2025.)

Federal officials also are withholding funding for two major organic agriculture programs that make payments directly to farmers, jeopardizing millions of dollars in funding just ahead of the 2025 planting season, reported E&E News by Politico on February 6. “The pause on the $85 million Organic Market Development Grant program and the $100 million Transition to the Organic Partnership Program has jolted farmers, nonprofits and businesses struggling to make planting and hiring decisions. Even if the pause on funding is lifted, it could put farmers out of business,” wrote E&E News reporter Marcia Brown. According to Brown, USDA has yet to release funding for the programs, even though federal courts ordered an end to the across-the-board freeze.

In addition, USDA’s Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly known as the Food Stamp program, is under DOGE scrutiny, plus the House of Representatives budget plan seeks to cut up to $230 billion from SNAP. Such funding cuts would affect sales for natural and organic food producers, including for such staple healthy products as organic dairy and plant-based foods that are frequently purchased by SNAP recipients.

According to Georgie Lee Smith, who blogs under the moniker Farmer Georgie, the loss of scientists and researchers at USDA agencies including the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) and the Animal & Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) will have a long-term negative effect on the ability of U.S. agriculture to respond to issues and opportunities, and maintain its position as one of the world’s leading food producers. 

Beginning in mid-February, “DOGE took aim at the United States Department of Agriculture, aka the USDA, firing ‘probationary’ employees in what has been described as a ‘blood bath’ of terminations. To be clear, probationary periods can run from one year to three, depending upon the job, and apply even to long-time USDA employees who have recently taken a job promotion. Translation — it’s a lot of folks, many with significant dollars invested into their training,” Smith wrote.

“The researchers and scientists at ARS are on the frontline of nutrition, food safety and quality, livestock and crop production, natural resources and sustainable agricultural systems. Along with our land grant university systems, ARS researchers are often the first area of investment into solving critical food and agricultural issues, whether that’s preventing food-borne illness outbreaks to breeding more climate-resilient crops and livestock to new ways to combat pests and diseases impacting food production,” she wrote. Smith also pointed to the risks associated with cutting staff at APHIS, USDA’s agency responsible for combatting the escalating avian flu crisis.

“Many farmers and ranchers are still holding onto hope that the funding freezes that have their grants and cost-share monies tied up are only a bump in the road. Perhaps these USDA terminations will be the same. But I’m afraid that is not the case,” Smith wrote on February 16. “Secretary (of Agriculture) Brooke Rollins issued a press release … that DOGE had terminated 78 USDA contracts totaling more than $132 million, with more than 1,000 contracts still under review. And DOGE tweeted they had eliminated an $8.2 million USDA contract to implement programs administered under Biden’s climate-smart initiative, which had funneled $3 billion in grant funds to agricultural producers, marketing organizations and forest landowners nationwide to support the adoption of climate-smart practices. Again, I can’t help but point out that the large majority of the climate-smart grants specifically supported the same ‘soil health/regenerative ag’ mantra that RFK Jr. is purporting. I feel like we just cut off our noses to spite our faces,” Smith commented.

Dismantling of USAID Impacts U.S. Farmers
For the U.S. agriculture economy, 40% of government food assistance comes from American farms through programs including the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which purchased $2 billion in food from American farmers in 2024. As such, the dismantling of USAID, along with its Food for Peace program, has eliminated a valuable market for farmers. It also has resulted in nearly $500 million worth of donated food sitting unused or rotting on docks and in warehouses, according to a report issued on February 10 by the Inspector General of USAID.

“Should parts of USAID be reformed or revisited? Certainly. But shutting down the entire agency in less than two weeks is not the way to do it,” wrote Erin Sikorsky, Director of the Center for Climate and Security and former aide to Wisconsin Congressman Ron Kind, in the Feb. 17, 2025, edition of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

“I know Wisconsinites are proud of the role our farm industry plays in supporting food security and preventing starvation worldwide. The Wisconsin Congressional delegation has consistently stood up for Wisconsin farmers, and they must do the same today by opposing this reckless destruction of these life-saving and economically important food aid programs. This action is a reversal of decades of bipartisan support for programs that provide global food aid and prevent starvation, precisely because such programs help American farmers, help those most in need, and prevent conflict and instability that threatens our national security,” Sikorsky wrote.

Steven Hoffman is Managing Director of Compass Natural, providing public relations, brand marketing, social media and strategic business development services to natural, organic, sustainable and hemp/CBD products businesses. Contact steve@compassnaturalmarketing.com.

The Life in Your Years — Healthspan Trend Revitalizes Natural Products Sales

This article first appeared in the February 2025 issue of Presence Marketing’s newsletter.

By Steven Hoffman

As the saying goes, “It’s not the years in your life that count, but the life in your years.” Today, that sentiment is emerging as a lasting market trend, driven by a growing awareness of the concept of “healthspan” vs. “lifespan.”

Over the past few years, consumers have been shifting their focus on health and aging away from just extending the years in one’s life to enhancing the quality of life and health across a lifetime. From the growth in sales of dietary supplements, functional foods and “blue zone” diet products to “bio-hacking,” self-diagnostics and other personalized healthcare tools, the idea of active aging, or healthspan, is taking root.

And it’s not just aging baby boomers seeking to close the gap between lifespan and healthspan in order to remain energetic, vibrant, healthy and free from debilitating illness into advanced age. Recent research indicates that consumers of all ages are interested in promoting longevity and optimal health 

"As consumers become drawn to the idea of healthspan, many are leaning into the idea of lowering their biological age – this can span from maintaining cellular health to ensuring they have strong muscles that can help them age gracefully and prevent falls. Aging has mostly been talked about in the context of outward appearance but consumers are now looking inward and optimizing for better functionality and performance as they age,” said the authors of the SPINS 2025 Industry Update & Trends Predictions, published in December 2024. "Lifespan has switched to healthspan focused on personal health and longevity. Chronological age vs. biological age is a new metric — and consumers want to biohack their way into feeling younger,” they added.

Healthy Aging Supplements Exponentially Outpacing Industry Growth
Natural products retailers are well positioned to capitalize on the healthy aging trend. “From lifespan to healthspan, the quest for longer, more active lives is driven by cutting-edge research, technologies, and tools, including a heightened focus on nutritional health and supplements. This year, The Vitamin Shoppe installed longevity-centric product displays in all stores to spotlight key areas of healthy aging needs, including cognitive health, cellular health, and mobility support formulas. Cognitive support products are the biggest sales driver by volume in the new longevity merchandise set, while cellular health support saw the biggest sales gains in 2023, up over 45% from the previous year,” the company said in its Vitamin Shoppe Health & Wellness Trend Report 2024, released in June 2024.

According to Nutrition Business Journal’s (NBJ) 2024 Condition Specific Report, which tracks the supplement market by ingredient category, sales channel and condition, “Brain Health hit the top of the growth chart and is expected to remain No. 1 through 2027, which is as far as we forecast,” Bill Giebler, NBJ’s Content and Insights Director, wrote in September 2024. “What’s compelling, though, is that Healthy Aging, which held the No. 9 growth position in 2020 and 2021, is expected to climb to the No. 2 growth position next year. Supplement usage always fluctuates between correction, maintenance and optimization, with the former two being the bedrock of the industry. Increasingly, though, optimization is coming into play,” he noted.

Market researchers also found that more than half of consumers are taking supplements to extend their healthspan, “and they’re not all seniors,” according to NBJ’s Longevity Report, published in September 2024. According to the study, sales of supplements for healthy aging have been exponentially outpacing overall supplement industry growth since 2022, and are projected to exceed $1 billion in 2027.

"Younger generations are just as, if not more, likely to be more concerned about the quality rather than the quantity of their later years. Millennials, in particular, are watching their aging parents struggle with debilitating health and cognitive issues and realizing they don’t want to grow old that way. Already more proactive about their health than the generations preceding them, millennials are a ripe market with a lot of runway for products that could not only help them stave off wrinkles and male-pattern baldness but also heart disease and dementia,” wrote Longevity Report author Robyn Lawrence.

“And when it comes to maximizing both healthspan and longevity, millennials are going all in on the biggest buzz in healthy aging circles these days: biohacking, or biological self-experimentation with the aim of fine-tuning both physiology and the nervous system to function optimally. NBJ found that taking supplements is the top activity or habit biohackers incorporate into their regimens, opening up a massive opportunity for supplement brands, and over half of millennials — more than any other generation — were somewhat or very interested in biohacking. More than a third of millennials said they would be more likely to buy products that are labeled and marketed using the term biohacking. For supplement brands, all of this means it’s time to take a good look at millennials,” Lawrence advised.

Surveys conducted for the Longevity Report found that consumers put supplements third only to diet and exercise when ranking the actions they’re taking to increase longevity and improve their healthspan. Sixty percent of women and 44% of men say they take supplements to extend their healthspan, NBJ found.

Blue Zone Diet and Foods for Longevity
As consumers catch on to the health risks associated with ultra processed foods, many are turning to whole foods and minimally processed options for healthy aging. “Consumers want their food to work harder for them,” Kathryn Peters, head of industry relations at SPINS, told Fi Global Insights in September 2024. “Consumers are moving away from processed foods, and back towards whole foods. Nutrient density has become a big topic. Consumers might be looking at the relative nutritional benefits of beans vs. processed white bread. They are also interested in consuming more protein and trying to stay away from added sugar. Consumers are demanding more from their products, and manufacturers need to find ways of seeking out ingredients that are minimally processed and better for their health. This is a macro-trend we are seeing, particularly in U.S., but also globally. Consumers are trying to figure out what habits they need to develop to help ensure they have a long and healthy lifespan,” Peters said.

Peters noted the healthspan trend also encompasses the beauty and self-care sectors, with consumers wanting to look and feel young and vibrant at every life stage. Peters pointed out that when it comes to beauty care, consumers prioritize premium brands and are unwilling to cut corners. “This underlines the importance and potential of this macro-trend. This mindset of wellbeing, of looking and feeling young, is here to stay,” she said.

Having studied and written extensively about the world’s “blue zones,” where individuals commonly live to be centenarians, Dan Buettner, a National Geographic Fellow, New York Times best-selling author and Netflix host, co-founded Blue Zones Kitchen, a line of non-GMO, plant-based frozen meals. The line is now sold in more than 1,000 grocery stores, including Whole Foods Market, Wegmans and more. “Many health problems are related to eating processed foods, sugars and red meats, compounded within a healthcare system that expects doctors to talk to people in 15-minute appointments,” Buettner told attendees at Newtopia Now in August 2024. “Fortunately,” he said, “the foods that make up the diets of the world’s longest-lived people are the cheapest ingredients. They’re whole grains, beans and tubers [root vegetables].” According to Buettner, despite all his findings about the importance of exercise and social connections, the most direct healthy aging interventions for most Americans will happen in the kitchen. “I’d start with the food,” he advised.

Sharing insights about foods for longevity, Dr. Paul Savage, M.D., a specialist in toxin reduction and chronic inflammation, emphasized that a long and healthy life isn’t just about choosing the right foods — “It’s about choosing them wisely. Prioritize organic, wild-caught, and toxin-free options wherever possible to ensure you’re maximizing the health benefits and minimizing exposure to harmful substances,” he said.

The Ozempic® Effect and Healthy Aging
Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) — a drug that is currently very popular in the treatment of diabetes, obesity and weight loss — reportedly may help with healthy aging by improving insulin sensitivity, reducing inflammation, and promoting DNA repair. According to National Institutes of Health researchers in a study published in 2023, “GLP‐1 RAs provide proven and potential benefits that may help people experience a prolonged healthy lifespan with reduced risk of serious and chronic aging‐related conditions. Thus, the drug class is positioned as a novel pharmacotherapeutic option that in combination with non‐pharmaceutical interventions can help address the pronounced medical need associated with the aging human population.”

Natural products retailers are reporting a bump in sales of products related to the increased use of GLP-1 medications. Consumers using such medications are seeking nutritional supplement support to help enhance the GLP-1 drug’s mechanism of action, to promote optimal nutrition while on the medication, and to deal with symptoms related to the use of GLP-1, such as maintaining muscle mass during weight loss.

In a study published in June 2024 on The Vitamin Shoppe’s Top Five Health and Wellness Trends, the company reported, “Supplements including proteins, multivitamins, fiber, and probiotics are taking on new importance for patients who are taking semaglutide or tirzepatide weight-loss drugs, such as Ozempic® and Mounjaro®. A sales bump in certain supplement categories that support proper nutrition can already be seen at The Vitamin Shoppe. Ready-to-drink protein beverages, for example, were up 10% in 2023 versus the previous year, and meal replacement products tailored to weight management are up 13% in the first four months of this year. Industry-wide, protein supplements and meal replacements were up 15% for the 52 weeks ending November 5, according to SPINS data.”

“It's by far the hottest thing I've ever seen in my 20 years, and it's not a fad,” Robert Brewster, president of Ingredient by Nature, a company that markets a probiotic strain it refers to as a “longevity probiotic,” told Nutritional Outlook in November 2024. “GLP-1 is not going away.”

Healthspan: A Holistic Healthcare Approach
“While longevity is top of mind, it’s not the same as it once was. Consumers aren’t just looking to live as long as possible; they’re looking to live better longer in a new era dubbed as the ‘healthspan era.’ The forefront of healthspan is giving consumers greater control over their future wellbeing largely with nutrition as the central focus,” said SPINS Senior Director of Market Insights Scott Dicker in a special “Active Aging” edition of Whole Foods Magazine.

“One of the biggest contributions to healthspan, beyond food and beverages, is the increase in personalization around active nutrition. Technology like wearables gives consumers real-time updates on their own health data — allowing them to make health choices unique to their own personal needs. From tracking dietary deficiencies to sleep patterns, wearable technology trades ‘one-size-fits-all’ style solutions for tangible individual health plans,” Dicker added.

Newly emerging healthcare companies like Love.Life, founded by former executives of Whole Foods Market, are leading the charge in blending natural wellness with medical services geared toward optimizing one’s healthspan.

"Love.Life aims to transform the lives of millions of people," said CEO and co-founder John Mackey at the launch of Love.Life in July 2023. "The conventional medical system is fundamentally flawed, focusing on managing diseases and treating symptoms rather than prevention and finding the root cause. Studies show that 80% of chronic diseases can be prevented and reversed through diet and lifestyle changes, which are the focus of Love.Life's philosophy and are rarely included in conventional treatment plans." Through tele-health and concierge services and walk-in wellness centers, Love.Life’s stated goal is to “help people lead long, healthy, and vibrant lives by improving both lifespan and healthspan.”

XPRIZE Healthspan: A $101 Million Global Competition
The quest for healthy aging is serious business, so much so that in July 2024, teams began competing in XPRIZE Healthspan, a seven-year, $101-million global competition to revolutionize the way we approach human aging, the goal of which is to “advance proactive, accessible therapeutic modalities that reduce the risk of chronic age-related diseases, increases human health span and extends quality of life well into our later years,” say the XPRIZE organizers.

A trustee of XPRIZE Healthspan, Ken Dychtwald, Ph.D., a psychologist, author of numerous books on aging, and CEO of Age Wave, has emerged as one of the world’s foremost visionaries regarding the lifestyle, marketing, healthcare, economic and workforce implications of aging. In an interview on Michael Krasny’s Grey Matter podcast in December 2023, Dychtwald said, “How many of your years are you healthy, vital, active, productive, vs. are you beginning to fall apart? We are 68th in the world when it comes to our healthspan in the U.S. What we all want is to live long and to live well and to not have the suffering and falling apart stretched out,” he said.

“Quality of life is what it is all about. We need to hold a mirror back to our own approach to healthcare and realize that we don’t take good care of our bodies, we eat a lot of junk food, two thirds of the population is overweight; we have a medical system that is all over the place, we have pharma industries and insurer industries making all kinds of money; we have a profit oriented system; we don’t even have geriatric competencies as a key variable among doctors, physical therapists, providers, etc.”

Dychtwald continued: “In a youth era, we assume that young people have hopes and dreams and you either achieve them or you don’t and then time’s up. But if you’re going to be living in a new era, a new age of aging, you might have new dreams at 70. You might have your biggest dreams beyond when you ever thought it was possible and we’ve got to open up the door to those possibilities. And so purpose is less a matter of simply hanging on for many people; for a growing number of people, it’s about discovering what their new purpose might be in their later years. Having done away with many acute and infectious diseases with things like penicillin, what are the breakthroughs we now need in healthcare so that we and our children and grandchildren can live long healthy lives? 

Steven Hoffman is Managing Director of Compass Natural, providing public relations, brand marketing, social media and strategic business development services to natural, organic, sustainable and hemp/CBD products businesses. Contact steve@compassnaturalmarketing.com. 

Presence MarketWatch 2025

This article first appeared in the January 2025 issue of Presence Marketing’s newsletter.

By Steven Hoffman

With the Trump administration returning to the White House and the GOP controlling both the Senate and House of Representatives by narrow margins, the year 2025 is sure to bring significant change to regulatory policy, business and the economy, not just for the U.S. but also the world. To help leaders in the natural channel navigate the opportunities and challenges ahead, Presence Marketing will track and report on these issues over the course of the year ahead. Read on for a snapshot of some of the major issues that will impact the natural, organic and nutritional products market over the coming year.

Tariffs and Food Prices
President-elect Donald Trump ran on a campaign to lower grocery prices, which rose 23% since the onset of the Covid pandemic in Spring 2020. Food inflation has slowed over the past year, according to NBC News, and is now less than 2% as energy prices and supply chains have stabilized. Yet, experts caution that a combination of tariffs and mass deportations could have a further destabilizing effect on agriculture, food production and grocery prices. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs up to 60% on goods from China, and a 25% tariff on products from Mexico and Canada – all countries that are significant exporters of food and other products to the U.S. market.

In a Time Magazine interview in December 2024, Trump acknowledged it may be difficult to bring down grocery prices, saying, “Look, they got them up. I’d like to bring them down. It’s hard to bring things down once they’re up.” According to a study from the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump’s proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada would have the biggest impact on prices for autos, vegetables, fuel, prepared food and animal products, reported CNN Business. The U.S. relies on Mexico for 89% of its imported avocados and 91% of foreign-grown tomatoes. “Higher tariffs on Mexico and Canada will … put upward pressure on U.S. food prices,” the Peterson Institute said. While it’s too soon to determine whether Trump will actually impose tariffs or if trade agreements can be reached to prevent them, “The only certainty is that new tariffs will be costly for the United States,” said the Peterson Institute study’s authors.

Food, Farm Workers and Mass Deportation
California’s Monterey County is the fourth-largest crop-producing county in the nation, with the agriculture industry there contributing $4.4 billion to the economy, and with an estimated 55,000 farm workers, including many who are undocumented. As such, the area’s growers have expressed concern that much of their workforce could disappear as a result of potential mass deportations once the Trump administration takes office. In an interview on Dec. 19, 2024, with NBC Bay Area News, Monterey County Farm Bureau CEO Norm Groot said, “It will absolutely impact food prices at the consumer level. If it impacts local and nationwide supplies, that will have a price increase.” NBC reported the farm bureau is teaming up with county officials and other stakeholders to create a task force in addressing local concerns around mass deportations, including concerns around family and child separation. "It's interesting that four years ago during the pandemic, they were essential," Groot said. "And now all of a sudden we’re looking at it from a different perspective and trying to understand how that dynamic has changed." 

And it’s not just Monterey County – while it’s estimated that undocumented workers make up only 5% of the total U.S. workforce, the share of undocumented workers across the nation’s food supply chain is at least 16%, reported Successful Farming. In some industries this number is higher – the Idaho Dairymen’s Association estimated that nearly 90% of the state’s dairy workers were born outside of the U.S. According to a September 2024 study by the Peterson Institute, mass deportation could lead to a 10% increase in food prices. Between higher food prices that could come with proposed tariffs – and potential government bailouts funded by U.S. taxpayers to provide assistance to farmers affected by deportations – Americans could potentially get “double-whammied” by the higher costs and supply chain disruptions these proposed policies could bring.

RFK, FDA and the Nation’s Health
MAHA has become a rallying cry for many in the natural health and nutritional supplements industry as Congress weighs the nomination of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Kennedy, a lawyer, environmentalist and controversial health advocate, is Trump’s pick to lead the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), a Cabinet-level position that oversees the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Institutes of Health (NIH), and others.

On one hand, RFK’s team is weighing a rewrite to the FDA’s rules overseeing food additives and taking a hard look at the harmful chemicals and pesticides used in food production. On the other hand, RFK’s top lawyer Aaron Siri stirred controversy when it was reported in December 2024 by CNN and others that he had petitioned the FDA to revoke approval of the polio vaccine. The World Health Organization declared that polio was eradicated in 2019 but warned it could re-emerge if vaccination coverage declines. According to a Dec. 4, 2024, article in Forbes, Kennedy criticized the FDA in a post on X (formerly Twitter) for “suppressing” a wide range of items, including “psychedelics, peptides, stem cells, raw milk, hyperbaric therapies, chelating compounds, ivermectin, hydroxychloroquine, vitamins, clean foods, sunshine, exercise, nutraceuticals, and anything else that advances human health and can’t be patented by Pharma.”

Kennedy will have an ally in Martin Makary, M.D., a surgeon, public policy researcher at Johns Hopkins University and a member of the National Academy of Medicine, and President-elect Trump’s choice to serve as FDA Commissioner. In September 2024, Makary joined RFK at a round table in Congress on health and nutrition, where he criticized how food in the U.S. is grown and processed. "We have poisoned our food supply, engineered highly addictive chemicals that we put into our food. We spray it with pesticides that kill pests. What do you think they do to our gut lining in our microbiome?" Makary said. In related news, Trump’s pick for Surgeon General, Dr. Janette Nesheiwat, a family medicine doctor who runs a chain of urgent care clinics in New York, was a regular Fox News contributor and is an advocate for nutritional supplements, marketing her own brand of dietary supplements called BC Boost, containing vitamins C, B-12, D and Zinc.

Brooke Rollins Nominated to Lead USDA
President-elect Trump in November nominated Brooke Rollins, President and CEO of the America First Policy Institute, a conservative think tank based in Texas, to lead the U.S. Department of Agriculture. “As our next Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke will spearhead the effort to protect American farmers, who are truly the backbone of our country,” Trump said in a statement. Rollins is a graduate of Texas A&M University, with an undergraduate degree in agriculture development. “From her upbringing in the small and agriculture-centered town of Glen Rose, Texas, to her years of leadership involvement with Future Farmers of America and 4H, to her generational family farming background, to guiding her four kids in their show cattle careers, Brooke has a practitioner’s experience, along with deep policy credentials in both nonprofit and government leadership at the state and national levels,” the statement said.

“We congratulate Brooke Rollins on her nomination as Secretary of Agriculture. This is an important moment for U.S. agriculture, and we are optimistic about the opportunities her leadership will bring to rural America,” Amy France, chairwoman of the National Sorghum Producers in Scott City, KS, told Successful Farming. "Sorghum farmers are at the forefront of innovation, contributing to domestic biofuels and heart-healthy, nutritious, ancient grain foods. We are eager to work with her to advance policies that strengthen the sorghum industry and benefit growers nationwide.”

“The Department of Agriculture plays a pivotal role in safeguarding our food supply, addressing food insecurity, managing our forests, as well as supporting America’s farmers and rural communities who are on the frontlines of the climate crisis,” said Rebecca Riley, Managing Director, Food and Agriculture, for the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC). “Rollins needs to invest in America’s farmers – from small family farms to larger-scale operations – and to work toward a resilient and equitable food system that puts healthy food on the table, restores our soil, protects the climate, and safeguards the health of our communities … now is not the time to undermine climate-smart farming practices, favor industrial agriculture at the expense of small producers and consumers, or gut the nutrition programs that many Americans rely on,” Riley said.  

California’s AB 660 Sets Landmark Food Date Labeling Standards
California Governor Gavin Newsom in September 2024 signed into law the nation's first mandatory food date labeling reform bill. California Assembly Bill 660 (AB 660) standardizes the use of “Best If Used By” and “Use By” dates on food labels, and prohibits the use of “Sell By” dates. The new law requires manufacturers to use the same phrase for date labels across their products, reported Food Safety. Beginning July 1, 2026, companies selling food products in California must only use “Best If Used By” to indicate the date by which a product will reach its peak quality, and “Use By” to indicate the date by which a product’s safety can no longer be guaranteed. The use of consumer-facing “Sell By” dates will be prohibited to reduce the chances of consumers confusing “Sell By” dates with quality or safety dates.

“On grocery store shelves today, there are more than 50 differently phrased date labels on packaged food. Some phrases are used to communicate peak freshness of a product or when a product is no longer safe to eat. Others, like ‘Sell By,’ are used only to inform stock rotation in stores but mislead some consumers into thinking the product is no longer safe to eat. AB 660 will close this gap by requiring manufacturers to use the same phrase for date labels across their products,” NRDC said in a statement. 

Of course, as goes California, so goes the country. “AB 660 is game changing, not just for California, but for the country. It will be the first law of its kind to end the ridiculous confusion that causes consumers to throw out almost $15 billion of perfectly good food nationwide. It will also help reduce the significant toll that wasting food has on our planet,” Dana Gunders, President of reFED, told BioCycle Magazine. “Having to wonder whether our food is still good is an issue that we all have struggled with. Today’s signing of AB 660 is a monumental step to keep money in the pockets of consumers while helping the environment and the planet,” said Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin, author of the bill.

Steven Hoffman is Managing Director of Compass Natural, providing public relations, brand marketing, social media and strategic business development services to natural, organic, sustainable and hemp/CBD products businesses. Contact steve@compassnaturalmarketing.com.

’Tis the Season: December’s Guide to Nonprofit Giving

This article first appeared in the December 2024 issue of Presence Marketing’s newsletter.

By Steven Hoffman

December is a time when the conscious CPG industry traditionally leans in to support nonprofit organizations dedicated to healthy living, the environment, community development, social justice, nutrition and hunger, animal welfare, education and more. Ask anyone in the natural channel what mission they support and more often than not, you’ll get a passionate earful. Surely, you and/or your company have particular causes you support. Yet, in this season of giving, we’d like to present 12 nonprofits worthy of consideration for their invaluable contributions to people and the planet.

Adopt a Native Elder
For more than 30 years, Adopt-A-Native-Elder (ANE) has used an integrated approach to go beyond charity to assist traditional elders on the Navajo Reservation in Utah and Arizona. ANE serves to help reduce extreme poverty, food insecurity and hardship facing traditional elders living on the Navajo Reservation. ANE is a humanitarian organization focused on delivering food, medical supplies, firewood and other forms of elder support while honoring the tradition and dignity of Navajo elders. ANE also offers one-of-a-kind, handmade woven rugs and jewelry available for sale, in which 100% of the proceeds benefit the elder artist.

Alaffia Foundation
Growing up and working to support his family in Togo, West Africa, Alaffia founder Olowo-n’djo Tchala witnessed firsthand the injustices and inequalities many of the women in his village faced. After attending university in the U.S., he felt driven to do something about it. In 1996, Tchala met his partner Prairie Rose Hyde, who served in his village as a Peace Corps volunteer. Inspired by a shared mission, the two launched Alaffia’s first shea butter collective in 2003. In 2004 they established the Alaffia brand in the U.S. Alaffia partners with Global Alliance for Community Empowerment (GACE), a 501(c)3 organization, to empower women and their communities in West Africa by investing in fair trade, maternal care, child education, clean water and climate change.

Comparsa
Comparsa is a documentary film dedicated to shining a light on a group of young women in Guatemala who use performance art to empower their community against gender-based violence. Directed by veteran filmmakers Vickie Curtis and Doug Anderson, Comparsa follows sisters Lesli and Lupe, who are spurred to action after the murder of their friend Siona in a fire. Driven to overcome a culture of silence, the sisters stage a grand public performance called a "comparsa" to raise awareness and combat violence against women, and to inspire a new generation of young leaders in Latin America. The nonprofit Girl Rising team is collaborating with the filmmakers of Comparsa to share Lesli and Lupe’s inspiring story.

Conscious Alliance
From exchanging copies of a poster donated by the String Cheese Incident to concertgoers at Denver’s Fillmore Auditorium for cans of food for a food drive in 2002, today Conscious Alliance operates out of an 11,000-square-foot distribution center, serving local communities and Native Americans, in particular the Pine Ridge Reservation in South Dakota. Working with top bands and musicians, including Dave Matthews, Widespread Panic and others, along with renowned poster artists, Conscious Alliance’s Art that Feeds program has delivered millions of pounds of food and helps feed students at all 15 schools on the Pine Ridge Reservation. The group also serves communities hit by natural disasters. Conscious Alliance works directly with natural food companies for product donations. Buy a concert poster and make a donation at ConsciousAlliance.org.

The HerbiCulture Project
Established by Catherine Hunziker, founder of herbal products leader WishGarden Herbs, The HerbiCulture Project (HCP) is a nonprofit organization dedicated to advancing medicinal plants while promoting regenerative production methods to ensure the highest quality botanicals, and to rebuild soil health and sequester carbon. HCP brings together a network of herbalists, regenerative farmers, permaculturists, researchers, soil health and climate specialists, nutritional supplement providers, agri-voltaic leaders and more. HCP has a mission of reintroducing medicinal herb crops at scale domestically as a solution to three critical issues: 1) Generate more lucrative crop revenues and healthier soil for farmers, 2) Support a growing demand and need for sustainable wellness ingredients sourced in the U.S., and 3) Introduce strategies that can improve soil health, which is at the root of our climate crisis. Visit The HerbiCulture Project’s Go Fund Me Page to donate.

Kiss the Ground
With award-winning documentary films and storytelling, educational materials and partnering with companies, Kiss the Ground (KTG) is at the forefront of advancing regenerative agriculture. Founded in 2013, KTG holds the vision that every person has a unique way to participate in the reverence, stewardship and regeneration of the planet. In 2020, in partnership with Big Picture Ranch, Kiss The Ground released a groundbreaking documentary on Netflix narrated by Woody Harrelson. The film and its sequel, Common Ground, which have been viewed by millions of people, explore regenerative agriculture, an innovative approach to farming that combines indigenous knowledge, holistic management and modern science and has the potential to heal the planet, create food security and mitigate climate change. Learn more about partnering with KTG here.

Living Lands & Waters
After years of being told "no" by the government, in 1997, East Moline, Illinois, resident Chad Pregracke decided to start cleaning up the Mississippi River by himself, founding Living Lands & Waters. Inspired by NASCAR races, the nonprofit organization received its first sponsorship, and Chad was able to remove 45,000 pounds of refuse from the river in his first year. Today, with the help of more than 126,500 volunteers and supporters, Living Lands & Waters hosts river cleanups, watershed conservation initiatives, educational workshops, tree plantings and other environmental efforts. Since the organization was founded, it has grown to be the only “industrial strength” river cleanup organization like it in the world, and has removed over 13 million pounds of garbage from U.S. waterways. Learn more about Living Lands & Waters in this video, and contribute here.

Rodale Institute
Celebrating more than 75 years of organic leadership, The Rodale Institute remains at the vanguard of science and best practices in advancing organic and regenerative agriculture. Rodale's nearly four-decades-long flagship study, the Farming Systems Trial, has scientifically proven that organic agriculture performs as well as, if not better than, conventional agriculture. Rodale focuses on demonstrating the power of nutrient-dense organic food in preventing and reversing diseases and works to create economic vitality in rural communities by training tomorrow’s organic farmers. Rodale also partners with schools, hospitals and other community organizations to help people make informed choices about the food they eat and how that impacts their health. Visit https://rodaleinstitute.org.

Salt & Light Coalition
Based in Chicago, the Salt & Light Coalition is a grassroots organization dedicated to breaking the cycle of human trafficking through mind-body restoration and workforce development. Salt & Light believes that yoga, fitness, proper nutrition and spirituality can change the world. The organization provides a one-year program for survivors of trafficking that focuses on healing, job training and building self-sufficiency. Most victims are immigrants and people of color, says Salt & Light founder Isabel Olson, Ph.D. It's also an epidemic in our own back yard -- “Even though we’re not aware of it, 25,000 women are trafficked in the Chicago area every year. That’s two women every hour of every day,” Olson says. Learn more and contribute at https://saltandlightcoalition.com.

The Organic Center
The Organic Center (TOC) is the organic products industry’s leading independent research and education organization advocating for the nutritional, health, environmental and climate mitigating benefits of organic food and farming. Founded in 2002 as a nonprofit 501(c)3 organization under the administration of the Organic Trade Association, TOC collaborates with leading academic and governmental institutions to advance research on organic food and farming, and to communicate those findings to the public. TOC is hosting its second annual Organic Night Out fundraiser on March 5 at Expo West 2025, and is currently accepting nominations from brands and businesses for the Organic Champions Awards, to be presented at the event. Visit https://www.organic-center.org.

Vitamin Angels
Founded in 1994 by natural products industry veteran Howard Schiffer, Vitamin Angels is a public health nonprofit organization working to improve nutrition and health outcomes in low-resource settings worldwide. The organization helps to strengthen, extend and amplify the impact of partner organizations working to reach the most nutritionally vulnerable groups, including pregnant women, infants and children, with evidence-based nutrition interventions and health services. Vitamin Angels works with more than 2,000 local organizations, including governments, to reach more than 60 million women and children in 65 countries annually. Vitamin Angels will host its 2025 Celebration on March 4 at Expo West. Visit https://www.vitaminangels.org.

WomenServe
In 2006, Nioma Marissa Sadler traveled to Rajasthan, India, as the Goodwill Ambassador for leading tea company Traditional Medicinals. While visiting the farms, she would sit with local women and listen to their stories of the oppression that still exists in rural India. Inspired by the stories they shared, WomenServe was born. Since then, the organization has invested over $5 million, with a mission to cultivate self-reliance in women and their communities by providing platforms and skills that foster community engagement, advocacy and collective participation. "Through amplifying women's voices and leveraging their strengths, we enhance local power and resilience. Rajasthan is just the start of our mission to establish gender equity and transform the lives of women and girls," says Nioma. Traditional Medicinals partners with WomenServe, particularly in farming communities in India. Visit https://www.womenserve.org.

Steven Hoffman is Managing Director of Compass Natural, providing public relations, brand marketing, social media and strategic business development services to natural, organic, sustainable and hemp/CBD products businesses. Contact steve@compassnaturalmarketing.com.

State of Natural: Industry on Track to Reach $318.6B in Sales in 2024 and $386.4B by 2028

This article first appeared in the November 2024 issue of Presence Marketing’s newsletter.

By Steven Hoffman

The natural and organic products industry is on a solid growth curve, supported by rising consumer demand for better for you products, according to the editors of Nutrition Business Journal (NBJ). 

Surpassing $300 billion in sales on 4.8% growth in 2023, NBJ projects sales of natural, organic, regenerative and sustainable products in the natural channel will continue to grow at about 5% per year to reach $318.6 billion in 2024, and $386.42 billion by 2028, with the market “showing no signs of slowing down.”

Dominated by the natural and organic food and beverage sector, which commands three times the market share of supplements and seven times that of the natural living category, “the natural products industry has infiltrated every part of brick-and-mortar and online retail and is outpacing conventional products’ growth. Slow and steady is winning this race,” reported the NBJ editorial team in its State of Natural Report: Four-Year Forecast, 2024 - 2028, published in September 2024.

Sales of natural, organic and functional food and beverages account for 69.3% of the overall natural products market. According to NBJ, this category will continue to dominate the market, predicting that sales will grow to $220.78 billion in 2024, and will reach $265.2 billion in sales in 2028. Strong growth in this sector is driven by improved product quality and taste, global flavors, and plant-based, paleo and carnivore diet trends, among others.

According to NBJ, the majority, or 63.7% of natural and organic food and beverage sales are occurring in mass market retail stores, a trend that will continue as natural products become more accessible across the country. Traditional natural food retail stores command 28% of the natural and organic food and beverage market.

Supplements: The Roller Coaster Ride Is Over

For the dietary supplements category, “the roller coaster ride is over,” NBJ reported. “After a sobering deflationary period following stratospheric growth during the Covid-19 pandemic, the supplements industry is settling into steady, stable growth in every category. With the combined Sports Nutrition and Meal Replacements category and Herbs and Botanicals leading the way, supplements are projected to grow at around 5% each year through 2028, from $67.43 billion in 2024 to $82.81 billion. Many consumers who discovered supplements in their panicked searches for immunity hacks during the pandemic appear to be sticking with the vitamins and herbs they started taking, and the industry is mainstreaming as a result,” said NBJ.

While sports nutrition and meal replacements are projected to grow between 5% and 7% over the next four years, sales of vitamins and minerals, which took a post-pandemic hit (NBJ predicts growth of only 2.1% in this category in 2024), are projected to grow 3.7% in 2028. However, vitamins and minerals control the largest market share (30%) among the dietary supplement categories.

Herbs and botanicals are projected to be the fastest growing supplement sector, and annual growth will reach 7% by 2028. Market share for sports nutrition and meal replacements is expected to remain steady over the next four years, ranging between 26% and 28%. Herbs and botanicals, too, are predicted to maintain a steady market share of about 20% over the next four years.

NBJ also noted that in the dietary supplements category, in particular, direct to consumer channels are driving significant growth. “With annual growth between 6% and 7% — nearly triple that of Natural and Specialty—the Direct-to- Consumer channel is driving growth during the forecast period, while Natural and Specialty continues to lose market share, falling from 26% in 2024 to 23.2% in 2028,” NBJ predicted.

Natural Living: Small but Growing Fast
As consumers learn more about the dangers of environmental toxins, microplastics and ingredients used in conventional beauty care products from mainstream media, social media influencers and others, they are becoming increasingly aware of the fact that it’s not just what you put in your body, but also what you put on your body. While the Natural Living sector takes up the smallest slice of the natural products industry pie at a 9.5% market share, it is expected outpace overall industry growth, growing at 6% per year from $30.38 billion to an estimated $38.41 billion in sales in 2028.

According to NBJ, the natural and specialty channel is projected to lose market share of natural living products between 2024 and 2028, but it will remain the second largest channel behind mass market. By 2028, sales of natural living products in mass market will be more than double those of natural and specialty. Also, while mass market and e-commerce are driving much of the natural living market, practitioners and multi-level/network marketing “are the only channels projected to see increased growth throughout the forecast period,” said NBJ.

The principal analysts, authors and editors of the Nutrition Business Journal State of Natural Report: Four-Year Forecast, 2024 – 2028 were market research analyst Erika Craft, industry analyst Christian Irwin, senior editor Robyn Lawrence, managing editor Hannah Esper and content & insights director Bill Giebler. Sources for the data include SPINS, IRI Group, Natural Foods Merchandiser Magazine, New Hope Network and others. The report is available for $125.

Learn More

Nutrition Business Journal State of Natural Report: Four-Year Forecast, 2024 - 2028

https://store.newhope.com/collections/state-of-natural/products/the-state-of-natural-report-four-year-forecast

Presence News: Natural Products Industry Reaches $303.3 Billion in Sales in 2023 on 4.8% Growth

https://www.pmidpi.com/blog/newsletter/natural-products-industry-reaches-303-3-billion-in-sales-in-2023-on-4-8-growth/

Steven Hoffman is Managing Director of Compass Natural, providing public relations, brand marketing, social media and strategic business development services to natural, organic, sustainable and hemp/CBD products businesses. Contact steve@compassnaturalmarketing.com.